Atmospheric Sciences Seminar

March 14, 3:30pm - 4:30pm
Mānoa Campus, Marine Sciences Building, MSB 100

---

Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change

Professor Michael J. Roberts
Department of Economics
University of Hawaii at Manoa

Seminar Date: Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Refreshments: 3:00pm at MSB courtyard
Free Cookies, Coffee & Tea Provided
(Please Bring Your Own Cup)
Seminar Time: 3:30pm
Location: Marine Sciences Building, MSB 100

Abstract:

We compare predictions of a simple process-based crop model (Soltani and Sinclair 2012), a simple statistical model (Schlenker and Roberts 2009), and a combination of both models to actual maize yields on a large, representative sample of farmer-managed fields in the Corn Belt region of the United States. After statistical post-model calibration, the process model (Simple Simulation Model, or SSM) predicts actual outcomes slightly better than the statistical model, but the combined model performs significantly better than either model. The SSM, statistical model and combined model all show similar relationships with precipitation, while the SSM better accounts for temporal patterns of precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. The statistical and combined models show a more negative impact associated with extreme heat for which the process model does not account. Due to the extreme heat effect, predicted impacts under uniform climate change scenarios are considerably more severe for the statistical and combined models than for the process-based model.

Event Sponsor
SOEST Atmospheric Sciences, Mānoa Campus

More Information
(808) 956-8775, SEE FLYER (PDF)

---

Wednesday, March 14
10:00am	Summer Registration Kick-Off Fair Mānoa Campus, Campus Center Courtyard
10:00am	Spring 2018 Grad Fair Mānoa Campus, Manoa Bookstore
10:00am	Lyon Arboretum Docent Guides’ Training Course Mānoa Campus, Lyon Arboretum, 3860 Manoa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822
10:00am	HPU-TRansfer Advising Honolulu Campus, Buidling 7-Breezeway
11:00am	Nursing Practice Final Oral Mānoa Campus, Webster Hall Rm 423
12:00pm	"The Archeology of Letterpress Media" by Kathy Ferguson Mānoa Campus, Burns 2118
12:00pm	Seize the Tweets: Social Media for Crisis Response (Nepal Earthquake) Mānoa Campus, Moore Hall, CLT 258
12:00pm	Geology & Geophysics Final Oral Mānoa Campus, POST 723
12:30pm	Fraps with Faculty Mānoa Campus, QLC 412
2:00pm	Study Abroad Meeting - Semester in Copenhagen, Denmark Mānoa Campus, Moore 226
2:30pm	Study Abroad Meeting - Semester in Paris, France Mānoa Campus, Moore 227
3:00pm	Applying to Law School Mānoa Campus, Campus Center Room 309
3:00pm	Study Abroad Meeting - Semester in Adelaide, Australia Mānoa Campus, Moore 205
3:30pm	Atmospheric Sciences Seminar Mānoa Campus, Marine Sciences Building, MSB 100
3:30pm	ORE Seminar: Numerical Modeling of Flood Hazards from Tsunamis and Hurricanes Mānoa Campus, Marine Sciences Building 114
3:30pm	Ocean and Resources Engineering Mānoa Campus, MSB 114
5:00pm	Applying to Law School Workshop Mānoa Campus, University of HawaiÊ»i at Mānoa, Campus Center, 2465 Campus Road, Room 309
7:30pm	Spring Footholds Mānoa Campus, Earle Ernst Lab Theatre, 1770 East-West Rd.