UHERO: Maui wildfires trigger population loss, economic impact

The devastating wildfires that swept through Maui in 2023 have reduced the island’s population by more than 1,000 residents, driven by increased out-migration and declining in-migration. Among those affected, at least 430 to 510 residents have moved out of state. This population loss will result in an estimated loss of $50 million annual income for Hawai‘i’s economy.

The blog, published by the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization (UHERO) on January 14, analyzed state tax filings to assess the fires’ impact on migration. The findings shed light on the long-term effects of the disaster, which ravaged parts of Lahaina and Kula, forcing thousands to leave their homes permanently.

Population shift: A community uprooted

UHERO’s analyzed the migration patterns of 5,089 individuals who lived in homes deemed unsafe due to fire damage. Among them:

• 1,420 residents relocated within the Lahaina zip code (for example, West Maui)
• 1,058 residents moved elsewhere on Maui
• 369 residents left Maui altogether, including 242 who moved out of state and 127 who relocated to other counties in Hawai‘i

Declining in-migration compounded these outflows. The blog found 370 fewer people moved to Maui from outside the state than expected.

“About 63–64% of the population loss stems from increased out-migration, with some residents leaving for other counties in Hawai‘i and others leaving the state entirely,” noted the blog, co-authored by UHERO Assistant Professor Dylan Moore and Baybars Karacaovali from the Hawai‘i Department of Taxation.

Economic fallout: A ripple effect of loss

These migration effects come with economic repercussions. The residents who would be living in Maui if the fires hadn’t happened earn $60 million of annual income, which is lost to the county. Much of this money, UHERO noted, would have eventually been spent in Maui, generating GET (general excise tax) revenue for the county, and supporting jobs for local residents. For the state as a whole, the loss of $50 million of annual income will reduce state GET revenue and economic activity. In addition, income loss due to fire-induced out-migration is estimated to have reduced Hawai‘i’s income tax collections by more than $3 million annually.

“These numbers understate the true impact of fire-induced migration,” the blog emphasized, pointing to the broader economic ripple effects, such as reduced spending by displaced residents.

Challenges for survivors

The wildfires have left survivors grappling with housing shortages, job losses and emotional strain. According to a survey by the Hawai‘i State Rural Health Association, one in five fire-affected households is seriously considering leaving Maui.

UHERO researchers acknowledged limitations in their analysis, which relied on state tax filings to track migration. More than 600 displaced households that filed taxes before the fires have not filed since, and others never filed tax returns between 2021 and 2023. These gaps suggest the actual impact could be even greater.

“These preliminary estimates likely underestimate the magnitude of the effect,” UHERO said, underscoring the need for more data to fully understand the long-term impacts of the disaster.

See the entire blog on UHERO’s website.

UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s College of Social Sciences.